vox populi

Sometimes when i get bored at school during lectures or seminars, i log on to the Temasek Review to read some of their articles. Not so much for the actual content of the articles, but more for the comments section at the end.

Read through them and you might think the PAP is doomed at the next GE. But scratch the surface and a different picture emerges.

As Cherian George once observed, any candidate who runs against the PAP is guranteed at least a quarter of the votes. This was more or less conclusively proven by such mentally certifiable candidates as Harbans Singh. (Harbans Singh was an opposition leader in the 80s who said such crazy things at rallies that he became the subject of a rumor that he was actually a professional actor paid by the PAP. Inspite of this, he managed to retain his election deposit on several occasions.)

This 25% figure more or less corresponds with the social economic divide in Singapore. The ST recently published data that showed 82% of Singaporeans lived in HDB flats, 11% in private condos and another 6% in landed housing.

With all due respect to the champagne socialists and limousine liberals, we should just accept the fact that no Singaporean in the upper middle class or above will ever vote anything but PAP. Everything they have, from the elite schools their children attend to the cushy job protection they enjoy under the Medical Registration or Legal Profession Acts, are all handouts from the PAP. They know which side their bread is buttered on.

Even when you do see a member of the elite turn against the PAP, say Tan Kin Lian or Ngiam Tong Dow, it's usually out of bitterness at not being given a golden handshake appointment on the board of a GLC or an ambassadorship. After all, if they felt so strongly about things, why didn't they quit when they were enjoying the good life?

So that leaves the bottom 25% and the huge amorphous middle class. The bottom 25% are more or less lost to the PAP, they've been looked down on and patronised so many times they'd vote for a ham sandwich if it were the alternative. Any hope for regime change lies with the middle class. The aspirational class.

As long as middle class Singaporeans still believe that if they play by the rules and work hard, they will one day be able to live the sweet life, then there is no chance the opposition will ever win. Opposition parties in Singapore play to the tune of the lowest common denominator, they offer little to someone who aspires to drive a big car or own a large house, as so many Singaporeans do. But bitterness and resentment is slowly building up, as more and more people realise that the top 20% of society is already occupied, and the people at the top want to keep it lonely up there.

A simple thought experiment will tell you if the winds of change are blowing.

Imagine a Lexus Ls460 passes by a crowded bus stop during morning rush hour. On the windscreen are decals for SICC and the Tanglin Club. The driver is an accomplised looking executive type, the wife is a walking advertisement for Woffles and the children look like poster kids for the GEP. What goes through the mind of the people waiting for their buses?

Is it

1) When the revolution comes those fat cats will be taxed into oblivion and their children will have to attend regular schools just like mine because we'll close down all the independent schools. They won't be able to have their private tennis lessons at the Tanglin Club either because we'll close that down too and make everyone go to the CC. Might as well slap an import tax on luxury vehicles while we're at it so we all have to drive Chery QQs.

or

2) If i keep working hard and invest my money sensibly maybe one day i can live like that.

Disclaimer: I don't know how to drive so maybe the Chery QQ is actually a very good car.